Water FractalTier 1
at Whimsy Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Water Overlord | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Wind Exia | 7.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.1 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Neos | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.1% | +5.9 |
| Wind Polkhawk | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |